Main
Welterweight
Jorge Masvidal vs Lorenz Larkin
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt
·Mandalay Bay Events Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jorge Masvidal
Lorenz Larkin
72%
28%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
32
Age
Δ 2y
30
35-18
Career record
Δ 6 pp
18-7
L1
Current streak
L1
9
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Masvidal: 48 sig / 1 TD ·
Larkin: 44 sig / 1 TD
Jorge Masvidal
Lorenz Larkin
52
Sig strikes landed
49
119
Sig strikes attempted
112
75
Total strikes landed
55
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.3
3.7
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
164s
Control time
75s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jorge Masvidal
"Gamebred"
35-18
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs M…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: American …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
—
W
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—
W
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
—
Blue corner
L1
Lorenz Larkin
"The Monsoon"
18-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
8 fights · 3-5
Last 5
L
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Rom…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Si…
—
L
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—