Main
Lightweight
Joshua Burkman vs Paul Felder
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt
·Mandalay Bay Events Center
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Joshua Burkman
Paul Felder
49%
51%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
36
Age
Δ 4y
32
29-16
Career record
Δ 11 pp
18-6
W1
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Burkman: 40 sig / 3 TD ·
Felder: 41 sig / 0 TD
Joshua Burkman
Paul Felder
45
Sig strikes landed
51
106
Sig strikes attempted
120
57
Total strikes landed
70
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.7
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
90s
Control time
186s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Joshua Burkman
"The People's Warrior"
29-16
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
4 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs T…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Ol…
—
L
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—
Blue corner
W1
Paul Felder
"The Irish Dragon"
18-6
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—
L
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2
—
L
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao…
—
W
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs S…
—