Main
Welterweight
Tarec Saffiedine vs Rick Story
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt
·Mandalay Bay Events Center
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Tarec Saffiedine
Rick Story
63%
37%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 0"
71"
30
Age
Δ 2y
32
17-7
Career record
Δ 2 pp
20-9
W1
Current streak
W2
3
UFC fights in our DB
15
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Saffiedine: 32 sig / 0 TD ·
Story: 58 sig / 0 TD
Tarec Saffiedine
Rick Story
64
Sig strikes landed
66
142
Sig strikes attempted
148
77
Total strikes landed
84
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.7
Takedowns attempted
5.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
63s
Control time
210s
Method
Decision
78%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
3%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Tarec Saffiedine
"Sponge"
17-7
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—
L
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs S…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Saffiedine vs …
—
Blue corner
W2
Rick Story
"The Horror"
20-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
15 fights · 10-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Mill…
—
L
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
W
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
L
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
—