Main
Featherweight
Renan Barao vs Jeremy Stephens
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt
·Mandalay Bay Events Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Renan Barao
Jeremy Stephens
91%
9%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
29
Age
Δ 1y
30
34-10
Career record
Δ 23 pp
29-24
L1
Current streak
L1
10
UFC fights in our DB
14
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Barao: 43 sig / 2 TD ·
Stephens: 55 sig / 0 TD
Renan Barao
Jeremy Stephens
60
Sig strikes landed
52
144
Sig strikes attempted
133
77
Total strikes landed
62
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.8
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
112s
Control time
93s
Method
Decision
69%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Renan Barao
"The Baron"
34-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
10 fights · 8-2
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dol…
—
L
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—
W
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—
W
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—
Blue corner
L1
Jeremy Stephens
"Lil' Heathen"
29-24
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
14 fights · 7-7
Last 5
L
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
W
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: A Champio…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Ste…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
—