Prelims1
Lightweight
Abel Trujillo vs Jordan Rinaldi
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt
·Mandalay Bay Events Center
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Abel Trujillo
Jordan Rinaldi
50%
50%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
33
Age
Δ 4y
29
W2
Current streak
—
8
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Trujillo: 35 sig / 3 TD ·
Rinaldi: 18 sig / 2 TD
Abel Trujillo
Jordan Rinaldi
27
Sig strikes landed
27
63
Sig strikes attempted
59
40
Total strikes landed
40
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.5
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
120s
Control time
86s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Abel Trujillo
"Killa"
16-8
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
8 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
L
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
—
W
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
—
Blue corner
Jordan Rinaldi
"All Day"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29