Main
Bantamweight
Thomas Almeida vs Cody Garbrandt
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt
·Mandalay Bay Events Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Thomas Almeida
Cody Garbrandt
78%
22%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
66"
25
Age
Δ 0y
25
23-5
Career record
Δ 13 pp
16-7
W4
Current streak
W3
4
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Almeida: 10 sig / 0 TD ·
Garbrandt: 21 sig / 0 TD
Thomas Almeida
Cody Garbrandt
58
Sig strikes landed
38
136
Sig strikes attempted
116
61
Total strikes landed
37
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.4
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.50
Knockdowns
0.30
30s
Control time
19s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
59%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Thomas Almeida
"Thominhas"
23-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
W
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
W
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
—
W
UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs S…
—
Blue corner
W3
Cody Garbrandt
"No Love"
16-7
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowb…
—
W
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
W
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
—