Back to The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joanna vs. Team Cláudia Finale
Prelims1 Flyweight

John Moraga vs Matheus Nicolau

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joanna vs. Team Cláudia Finale ·MGM Grand Garden Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
John Moraga
Matheus Nicolau
28% 72%
Why
66"
Reach
66"
32
Age
Δ 9y
24
19-8
Career record
Δ 4 pp
20-6-1
L1
Current streak
W1
8
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Moraga: 31 sig / 0 TD · Nicolau: 41 sig / 0 TD
John Moraga
Matheus Nicolau
26
Sig strikes landed
41
70
Sig strikes attempted
84
41
Total strikes landed
61
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.9
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.00
Knockdowns
0.20
99s
Control time
243s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
29%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

John Moraga

19-8
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
L UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
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W UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
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W UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
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L UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs K…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
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Blue corner
W1

Matheus Nicolau

20-6-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
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