Prelims1
Middleweight
Cezar Ferreira vs Anthony Smith
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joanna vs. Team Cláudia Finale
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Cezar Ferreira
Anthony Smith
30%
70%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
31
Age
Δ 3y
28
14-8
Career record
Δ 0 pp
39-22
W1
Current streak
W1
8
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Ferreira: 30 sig / 6 TD ·
Smith: 33 sig / 0 TD
Cezar Ferreira
Anthony Smith
18
Sig strikes landed
30
46
Sig strikes attempted
56
43
Total strikes landed
43
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
4.4
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
251s
Control time
74s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Cezar Ferreira
"Mutante"
14-8
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
79"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: American …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Ste…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Hend…
—
Blue corner
W1
Anthony Smith
"Lionheart"
39-22
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowb…
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
—