Prelims2
Lightweight
Jake Matthews vs Kevin Lee
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joanna vs. Team Cláudia Finale
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jake Matthews
Kevin Lee
68%
32%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 4"
77"
22
Age
Δ 2y
24
24-8
Career record
Δ 5 pp
19-8
W2
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Matthews: 5 sig / 0 TD ·
Lee: 24 sig / 1 TD
Jake Matthews
Kevin Lee
43
Sig strikes landed
39
97
Sig strikes attempted
105
61
Total strikes landed
59
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.3
5.0
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
149s
Control time
168s
Method
Decision
71%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Jake Matthews
"The Celtic Kid"
24-8
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
—
W
UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Te Huna vs Mar…
—
Blue corner
W1
Kevin Lee
"The Motown Phenom"
19-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
—
L
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs T…
—
W
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—