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Joaquim Silva vs Andrew Holbrook

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joanna vs. Team Cláudia Finale ·MGM Grand Garden Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Joaquim Silva
Andrew Holbrook
64% 36%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
27
Age
Δ 3y
30
15-6
Career record
Δ 10 pp
13-3
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Silva: 6 sig / 0 TD · Holbrook: 2 sig / 0 TD
Joaquim Silva
Andrew Holbrook
26
Sig strikes landed
34
81
Sig strikes attempted
90
45
Total strikes landed
44
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.5
2.3
Takedowns attempted
5.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
109s
Control time
160s
Method
Decision
67%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
17%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Joaquim Silva

"Netto BJJ"
15-6
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2
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Blue corner
W1

Andrew Holbrook

13-3
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao…
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