Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Chris Beal
Joe Soto
48%
52%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 4"
65"
31
Age
Δ 2y
29
10-6
Career record
Δ 7 pp
18-8
L2
Current streak
L3
4
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Beal: 76 sig / 0 TD ·
Soto: 47 sig / 1 TD
Chris Beal
Joe Soto
48
Sig strikes landed
45
117
Sig strikes attempted
103
66
Total strikes landed
59
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.8
4.4
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
197s
Control time
86s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Chris Beal
"Real Deal"
10-6
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Ol…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johns…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
—
W
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
—
Blue corner
L3
Joe Soto
"One Bad Mofo"
18-8
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 0-3
Last 3
L
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
—
L
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto
—