Prelims2
Middleweight
Elias Theodorou vs Sam Alvey
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson
·TD Place Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Elias Theodorou
Sam Alvey
59%
41%
Why
76"
Reach
76"
28
Age
Δ 2y
30
16-4
Career record
Δ 18 pp
33-19-1
L1
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Theodorou: 37 sig / 0 TD ·
Alvey: 24 sig / 0 TD
Elias Theodorou
Sam Alvey
32
Sig strikes landed
30
73
Sig strikes attempted
63
55
Total strikes landed
38
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.3
5.4
Takedowns attempted
0.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
208s
Control time
29s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Elias Theodorou
"The Spartan"
16-4
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
W
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs S…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Ken…
—
Blue corner
L1
Sam Alvey
"Smile'N"
33-19-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Sa…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bi…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
—