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Prelims2 Women's Strawweight

Randa Markos vs Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger

UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson ·TD Place Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Randa Markos
Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger
50% 50%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 1"
64"
31
Age
Δ 0y
31
11-13-1
Career record
Δ 11 pp
6-5
L1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Markos: 86 sig / 1 TD · Jones-Lybarger: 79 sig / 1 TD
Randa Markos
Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger
46
Sig strikes landed
35
123
Sig strikes attempted
98
93
Total strikes landed
74
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.9
4.5
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.00
255s
Control time
187s
Method
Decision
78%
KO/TKO
13%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Randa Markos

"Quiet Storm"
11-13-1
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—
W UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
—
L The Ultimate Fighter: A Champio…
—
Blue corner
L1

Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger

6-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—