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Prelims2 Welterweight

Colby Covington vs Jonathan Meunier

UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson ·TD Place Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Colby Covington
Jonathan Meunier
66% 34%
Why
28
Age
Δ 1y
29
L1
Current streak
—
4
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Covington: 19 sig / 5 TD · Meunier: 16 sig / 0 TD
Colby Covington
Jonathan Meunier
27
Sig strikes landed
20
46
Sig strikes attempted
43
54
Total strikes landed
28
3.4
Takedowns landed
0.2
6.2
Takedowns attempted
0.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
326s
Control time
92s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
35%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Colby Covington

"Chaos"
17-6
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
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W UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
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W UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs S…
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W UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Le
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Blue corner

Jonathan Meunier

"District"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Stance
Switch
Age
29