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Misha Cirkunov vs Ion Cutelaba

UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson ·TD Place Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Misha Cirkunov
Ion Cutelaba
40% 60%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
29
Age
Δ 7y
22
W2
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Cirkunov: 44 sig / 1 TD · Cutelaba: 24 sig / 0 TD
Misha Cirkunov
Ion Cutelaba
26
Sig strikes landed
26
50
Sig strikes attempted
53
42
Total strikes landed
40
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.2
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
156s
Control time
96s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Misha Cirkunov

16-9
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs T…
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W UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Ol…
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Blue corner

Ion Cutelaba

"The Hulk"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
23