Prelims1
Lightweight
Jason Saggo vs Leandro Silva
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson
·TD Place Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Jason Saggo
Leandro Silva
46%
54%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
31
Age
31
13-4
Career record
Δ 1 pp
21-6-1
W1
Current streak
W3
3
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Saggo: 48 sig / 1 TD ·
Silva: 47 sig / 2 TD
Jason Saggo
Leandro Silva
23
Sig strikes landed
22
49
Sig strikes attempted
45
44
Total strikes landed
40
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.5
4.2
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
197s
Control time
153s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jason Saggo
13-4
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
—
L
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs S…
—
W
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov
—
Blue corner
W3
Leandro Silva
"Buscape"
21-6-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
6 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gaste…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Rom…
—
W
UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs S…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arl…
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
—