Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Dan Henderson
Hector Lombard
27%
73%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 3"
71"
46
Age
Δ 8y
38
32-16
Career record
Δ 7 pp
34-11-1
L1
Current streak
L1
9
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Henderson: 13 sig / 0 TD ·
Lombard: 23 sig / 2 TD
Dan Henderson
Hector Lombard
21
Sig strikes landed
28
49
Sig strikes attempted
50
30
Total strikes landed
42
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.3
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
48s
Control time
161s
Method
Decision
22%
KO/TKO
66%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Dan Henderson
"Hendo"
32-16
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
46
In our database
9 fights · 3-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johns…
—
L
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Hend…
—
Blue corner
L1
Hector Lombard
34-11-1
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
38
In our database
7 fights · 3-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
—
W
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
W
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann
—
W
UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pear…
—