Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Dustin Poirier
King Green
69%
31%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
27
Age
Δ 2y
30
31-10
Career record
Δ 11 pp
35-18-1
W3
Current streak
L1
14
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Poirier: 36 sig / 0 TD ·
Green: 16 sig / 0 TD
Dustin Poirier
King Green
52
Sig strikes landed
43
126
Sig strikes attempted
99
66
Total strikes landed
63
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.3
4.3
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
167s
Control time
62s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Dustin Poirier
"The Diamond"
31-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
14 fights · 11-3
Last 5
W
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
—
L
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Ken…
—
Blue corner
L1
King Green
35-18-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swans…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
W
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—