Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Max Holloway
Ricardo Lamas
83%
17%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
24
Age
Δ 10y
34
28-9
Career record
Δ 3 pp
21-8
W8
Current streak
W1
14
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Holloway: 103 sig / 0 TD ·
Lamas: 64 sig / 0 TD
Max Holloway
Ricardo Lamas
60
Sig strikes landed
39
143
Sig strikes attempted
102
78
Total strikes landed
45
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.2
0.5
Takedowns attempted
4.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
39s
Control time
122s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Max Holloway
"Blessed"
28-9
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
14 fights · 11-3
Last 5
W
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Ol…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story
—
Blue corner
W1
Ricardo Lamas
"The Bully"
21-8
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gaste…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
—
W
UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Ste…
—
L
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—