Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Brian Ortega
Clay Guida
60%
40%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
25
Age
Δ 9y
34
17-5
Career record
Δ 15 pp
38-23
W2
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Ortega: 62 sig / 0 TD ·
Guida: 62 sig / 0 TD
Brian Ortega
Clay Guida
39
Sig strikes landed
33
109
Sig strikes attempted
83
55
Total strikes landed
49
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.4
0.7
Takedowns attempted
5.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
62s
Control time
142s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
35%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Brian Ortega
"T-City"
17-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Switch
Age
25
In our database
3 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
—
Blue corner
L1
Clay Guida
"The Carpenter"
38-23
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
12 fights · 7-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
—
L
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs N…
—
L
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—