Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Beneil Dariush
James Vick
75%
25%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
27
Age
Δ 2y
29
23-9-1
Career record
Δ 4 pp
14-5
L1
Current streak
W5
8
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Dariush: 46 sig / 0 TD ·
Vick: 9 sig / 0 TD
Beneil Dariush
James Vick
30
Sig strikes landed
31
75
Sig strikes attempted
87
41
Total strikes landed
41
2.0
Takedowns landed
0.2
5.1
Takedowns attempted
0.3
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
163s
Control time
26s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Beneil Dariush
23-9-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Sa…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
W
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
W
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
—
Blue corner
W5
James Vick
"The Texecutioner"
14-5
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swans…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs D…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—