Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Cole Miller
Alex Caceres
61%
39%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 0"
74"
32
Age
Δ 4y
28
21-11
Career record
Δ 6 pp
22-15
L1
Current streak
W1
12
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Miller: 33 sig / 3 TD ·
Caceres: 97 sig / 5 TD
Cole Miller
Alex Caceres
47
Sig strikes landed
49
116
Sig strikes attempted
96
60
Total strikes landed
60
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
120s
Control time
88s
Method
Decision
69%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Cole Miller
"Magrinho"
21-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
12 fights · 6-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mun…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jone…
—
Blue corner
W1
Alex Caceres
"Bruce Leeroy"
22-15
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
13 fights · 6-6
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson
—
L
UFC 175: Weidman vs Machida
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
—