Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Sean Strickland
Tom Breese
84%
16%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
25
Age
Δ 1y
25
32-7
Career record
Δ 1 pp
13-3
W2
Current streak
W3
5
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Strickland: 73 sig / 0 TD ·
Breese: 62 sig / 0 TD
Sean Strickland
Tom Breese
39
Sig strikes landed
31
104
Sig strikes attempted
80
50
Total strikes landed
41
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.5
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
122s
Control time
73s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Sean Strickland
32-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowb…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousa…
—
W
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
Blue corner
W3
Tom Breese
13-3
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bispi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smo…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
—