Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Kevin Casey
Elvis Mutapcic
41%
59%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 5"
72"
35
Age
Δ 5y
30
9-6-2
Career record
Δ 12 pp
15-7-1
L1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Casey: 59 sig / 2 TD ·
Mutapcic: 64 sig / 0 TD
Kevin Casey
Elvis Mutapcic
38
Sig strikes landed
36
83
Sig strikes attempted
82
51
Total strikes landed
55
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.0
4.7
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.60
164s
Control time
106s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Kevin Casey
"King"
9-6-2
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
5 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jone…
—
Blue corner
L1
Elvis Mutapcic
"The King"
15-7-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—