Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Marco Polo Reyes
Dong Hyun Ma
44%
56%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 0"
70"
32
Age
Δ 4y
28
9-7
Career record
Δ 5 pp
16-12-3
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Reyes: 135 sig / 0 TD ·
Ma: 83 sig / 2 TD
Marco Polo Reyes
Dong Hyun Ma
29
Sig strikes landed
26
69
Sig strikes attempted
59
40
Total strikes landed
30
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.8
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
84s
Control time
106s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
28%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Marco Polo Reyes
9-7
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gaste…
—
Blue corner
L1
Dong Hyun Ma
"Maestro"
16-12-3
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs M…
—