Main
Women's Strawweight
Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Heather Clark
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski
·Ahoy Rotterdam
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Heather Clark
70%
30%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 0"
64"
31
Age
Δ 5y
36
17-10
Career record
Δ 6 pp
8-6
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Kowalkiewicz: 119 sig / 0 TD ·
Clark: 70 sig / 0 TD
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Heather Clark
58
Sig strikes landed
53
137
Sig strikes attempted
132
89
Total strikes landed
72
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.5
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.00
167s
Control time
89s
Method
Decision
85%
KO/TKO
7%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
17-10
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—
Blue corner
W1
Heather Clark
"Hurricane"
8-6
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
The Ultimate Fighter: A Champio…
—