Prelims1
Lightweight
Rustam Khabilov vs Chris Wade
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski
·Ahoy Rotterdam
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rustam Khabilov
Chris Wade
76%
24%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
30
Age
Δ 1y
29
25-4
Career record
Δ 5 pp
13-3
W1
Current streak
W4
6
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Khabilov: 50 sig / 6 TD ·
Wade: 25 sig / 0 TD
Rustam Khabilov
Chris Wade
14
Sig strikes landed
20
34
Sig strikes attempted
39
37
Total strikes landed
40
1.9
Takedowns landed
1.4
3.0
Takedowns attempted
4.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
167s
Control time
184s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Rustam Khabilov
"Tiger"
25-4
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bispi…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs K…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
W
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen
—
Blue corner
W4
Chris Wade
13-3
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Si…
—
W
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto
—