Main
Light Heavyweight
Nikita Krylov vs Francimar Barroso
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski
·Ahoy Rotterdam
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Nikita Krylov
Francimar Barroso
87%
13%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
24
Age
Δ 12y
36
32-11
Career record
Δ 0 pp
20-7
W3
Current streak
W2
6
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Krylov: 58 sig / 0 TD ·
Barroso: 22 sig / 2 TD
Nikita Krylov
Francimar Barroso
38
Sig strikes landed
22
76
Sig strikes attempted
44
52
Total strikes landed
42
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.0
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
99s
Control time
198s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
29%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Nikita Krylov
"The Miner"
32-11
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Ol…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johns…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Br…
—
L
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
—
Blue corner
W2
Francimar Barroso
"Bodao"
20-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Hend…
—
W
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung
—