Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Jon Tuck
Josh Emmett
40%
60%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 3"
70"
32
Age
Δ 0y
31
W1
Current streak
—
5
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Tuck: 53 sig / 0 TD ·
Emmett: 54 sig / 0 TD
Jon Tuck
Josh Emmett
38
Sig strikes landed
40
90
Sig strikes attempted
79
54
Total strikes landed
55
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.5
2.7
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
114s
Control time
149s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jon Tuck
"Super Saiyan"
11-5
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Faber
—
L
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs K…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mun…
—
W
UFC Macao: Franklin vs Le
—
Blue corner
Josh Emmett
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31