Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Yan Cabral
Reza Madadi
69%
31%
Why
73"
Reach
73"
33
Age
Δ 5y
38
13-4
Career record
Δ 10 pp
14-7
L1
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Cabral: 32 sig / 1 TD ·
Madadi: 27 sig / 1 TD
Yan Cabral
Reza Madadi
28
Sig strikes landed
26
54
Sig strikes attempted
47
54
Total strikes landed
44
2.2
Takedowns landed
1.4
5.3
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
271s
Control time
166s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
38%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Yan Cabral
13-4
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
W
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields
—
Blue corner
L1
Reza Madadi
"Mad Dog"
14-7
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smo…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Lati…
—
L
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs S…
—