Main
Welterweight
Albert Tumenov vs Gunnar Nelson
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski
·Ahoy Rotterdam
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Albert Tumenov
Gunnar Nelson
66%
34%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
24
Age
Δ 3y
28
19-4
Career record
Δ 12 pp
19-7-1
W5
Current streak
L1
6
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Tumenov: 23 sig / 0 TD ·
Nelson: 29 sig / 2 TD
Albert Tumenov
Gunnar Nelson
29
Sig strikes landed
24
69
Sig strikes attempted
62
44
Total strikes landed
32
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.0
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
60s
Control time
120s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Albert Tumenov
"Einstein"
19-4
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—
W
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johns…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs S…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
Blue corner
L1
Gunnar Nelson
"Gunni"
19-7-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
28
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
L
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
W
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Br…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs …
—