Prelims2
Welterweight
Leon Edwards vs Dominic Waters
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski
·Ahoy Rotterdam
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Leon Edwards
Dominic Waters
81%
19%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 5"
79"
25
Age
Δ 2y
27
22-7
Career record
Δ 16 pp
9-6
L1
Current streak
L2
4
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Edwards: 24 sig / 2 TD ·
Waters: 3 sig / 4 TD
Leon Edwards
Dominic Waters
33
Sig strikes landed
16
61
Sig strikes attempted
42
58
Total strikes landed
35
1.7
Takedowns landed
1.9
1.9
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
189s
Control time
205s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Leon Edwards
"Rocky"
22-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Lei…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro…
—
L
UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs S…
—
Blue corner
L2
Dominic Waters
"Sho Nuff"
9-6
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs M…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: American …
—