Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Yuta Sasaki
Willie Gates
77%
23%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
27
Age
Δ 3y
29
21-7-2
Career record
Δ 10 pp
12-8
L2
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Sasaki: 7 sig / 4 TD ·
Gates: 13 sig / 0 TD
Yuta Sasaki
Willie Gates
26
Sig strikes landed
24
59
Sig strikes attempted
51
42
Total strikes landed
35
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.7
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
146s
Control time
70s
Method
Decision
27%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
34%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Yuta Sasaki
"Ulka"
21-7-2
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dol…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Le
—
Blue corner
L1
Willie Gates
12-8
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Sa…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: American …
—
L
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
—