Prelims1
Flyweight
Sergio Pettis vs Chris Kelades
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Sergio Pettis
Chris Kelades
86%
14%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 1"
68"
23
Age
Δ 13y
35
19-5
Career record
Δ 2 pp
10-3
W1
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Pettis: 61 sig / 2 TD ·
Kelades: 35 sig / 1 TD
Sergio Pettis
Chris Kelades
51
Sig strikes landed
43
117
Sig strikes attempted
97
77
Total strikes landed
60
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.5
Takedowns attempted
5.0
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
180s
Control time
168s
Method
Decision
67%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Sergio Pettis
19-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
—
L
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
W
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs K…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
—
Blue corner
W1
Chris Kelades
"The Greek Assassin"
10-3
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Ol…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs S…
—