Main
Lightweight
Anthony Pettis vs Edson Barboza
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Anthony Pettis
Edson Barboza
68%
32%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
29
Age
Δ 1y
30
24-11
Career record
Δ 7 pp
24-15
L2
Current streak
L1
8
UFC fights in our DB
14
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Pettis: 48 sig / 0 TD ·
Barboza: 73 sig / 0 TD
Anthony Pettis
Edson Barboza
42
Sig strikes landed
48
95
Sig strikes attempted
115
48
Total strikes landed
51
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.1
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
64s
Control time
44s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Anthony Pettis
"Showtime"
24-11
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—
L
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
W
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
—
W
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
—
Blue corner
L1
Edson Barboza
"Junior"
24-15
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
14 fights · 10-4
Last 5
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGr…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swans…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Mill…
—