🏆 Title fight
Main
Flyweight
Demetrious Johnson vs Henry Cejudo
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Demetrious Johnson
Henry Cejudo
88%
12%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 2"
64"
30
Age
Δ 0y
29
28-3-1
Career record
Δ 14 pp
17-6
W8
Current streak
W4
13
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Johnson: 21 sig / 0 TD ·
Cejudo: 6 sig / 1 TD
Demetrious Johnson
Henry Cejudo
77
Sig strikes landed
42
157
Sig strikes attempted
125
114
Total strikes landed
68
2.6
Takedowns landed
1.0
6.4
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
259s
Control time
100s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Demetrious Johnson
"Mighty Mouse"
28-3-1
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
13 fights · 11-1
Last 5
W
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2
—
W
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
—
W
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—
W
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
—
Blue corner
W4
Henry Cejudo
"Triple C"
17-6
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gaste…
—
W
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
—
W
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
—