Main
Middleweight
Robert Whittaker vs Rafael Natal
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Robert Whittaker
Rafael Natal
79%
21%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
77"
25
Age
Δ 8y
33
28-9
Career record
Δ 7 pp
22-9-1
W4
Current streak
W4
8
UFC fights in our DB
14
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Whittaker: 89 sig / 0 TD ·
Natal: 62 sig / 0 TD
Robert Whittaker
Rafael Natal
59
Sig strikes landed
50
134
Sig strikes attempted
126
68
Total strikes landed
60
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.2
Takedowns attempted
5.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
34s
Control time
105s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Robert Whittaker
"The Reaper"
28-9
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Te Huna vs Mar…
—
L
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
—
Blue corner
W4
Rafael Natal
"Sapo"
22-9-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
14 fights · 9-4
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—
W
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—
W
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—