Prelims1
Women's Strawweight
Carla Esparza vs Juliana Lima
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Carla Esparza
Juliana Lima
79%
21%
Why
63"
Reach
Δ 2"
66"
28
Age
Δ 6y
34
20-9
Career record
Δ 2 pp
10-5
L1
Current streak
W2
2
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Esparza: 28 sig / 5 TD ·
Lima: 26 sig / 0 TD
Carla Esparza
Juliana Lima
29
Sig strikes landed
27
60
Sig strikes attempted
59
70
Total strikes landed
57
2.1
Takedowns landed
1.4
4.0
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
278s
Control time
206s
Method
Decision
74%
KO/TKO
7%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Carla Esparza
"Cookie Monster"
20-9
Career record
Height
61"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: A Champio…
—
Blue corner
W2
Juliana Lima
"Ju Thai"
10-5
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
—
W
UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs S…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
—