Prelims2
Light Heavyweight
Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs Clint Hester
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
Clint Hester
68%
32%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
77"
31
Age
Δ 1y
29
22-11-1
Career record
Δ 4 pp
11-7
L1
Current streak
L2
3
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Rogerio de Lima: 29 sig / 0 TD ·
Hester: 0 sig / 0 TD
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
Clint Hester
29
Sig strikes landed
21
60
Sig strikes attempted
49
44
Total strikes landed
32
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.4
1.2
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
79s
Control time
77s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
53%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
"Pezao"
22-11-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Ol…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dol…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Mald…
—
Blue corner
L2
Clint Hester
"Headbussa"
11-7
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Ste…
—
W
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot
—