🏆 Title fight
Main
Light Heavyweight
Jon Jones vs Ovince Saint Preux
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jon Jones
Ovince Saint Preux
95%
5%
Why
84"
Reach
Δ 4"
80"
29
Age
Δ 4y
33
29-1
Career record
Δ 36 pp
28-18
W8
Current streak
W1
12
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Jones: 105 sig / 3 TD ·
Saint Preux: 57 sig / 0 TD
Jon Jones
Ovince Saint Preux
82
Sig strikes landed
34
118
Sig strikes attempted
85
118
Total strikes landed
38
2.0
Takedowns landed
0.3
3.8
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
305s
Control time
19s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Jon Jones
"Bones"
29-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
85"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
12 fights · 12-0
Last 5
W
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
—
W
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
—
W
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen
—
W
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
—
Blue corner
W1
Ovince Saint Preux
28-18
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs T…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Sa…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
W
UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs S…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
—