Main
Catch Weight
Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Darrell Horcher
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans
·Amalie Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Darrell Horcher
91%
9%
Why
70"
Reach
70"
28
Age
Δ 1y
29
W6
Current streak
—
6
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Nurmagomedov: 75 sig / 2 TD ·
Horcher: 6 sig / 0 TD
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Darrell Horcher
45
Sig strikes landed
25
84
Sig strikes attempted
66
96
Total strikes landed
41
3.7
Takedowns landed
0.3
6.9
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
404s
Control time
35s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W6
Khabib Nurmagomedov
"The Eagle"
30-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
6 fights · 6-0
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
W
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
—
W
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
—
Blue corner
Darrell Horcher
"The Saint"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29