Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Cub Swanson
Hacran Dias
58%
42%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
32
Age
Δ 1y
32
31-15
Career record
Δ 10 pp
24-6-1
L2
Current streak
W2
9
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Swanson: 83 sig / 0 TD ·
Dias: 55 sig / 0 TD
Cub Swanson
Hacran Dias
41
Sig strikes landed
35
93
Sig strikes attempted
83
53
Total strikes landed
51
0.3
Takedowns landed
2.2
0.4
Takedowns attempted
7.2
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
49s
Control time
195s
Method
Decision
65%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Cub Swanson
31-15
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swans…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Ste…
—
W
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDona…
—
Blue corner
W2
Hacran Dias
"Barnabe"
24-6-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Rom…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dol…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Ste…
—
L
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
W
UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2
—