Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Randy Brown
Michael Graves
67%
33%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 7"
71"
26
Age
Δ 0y
25
21-8
Career record
Δ 15 pp
7-0-1
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Brown: 10 sig / 0 TD ·
Graves: 11 sig / 2 TD
Randy Brown
Michael Graves
39
Sig strikes landed
21
59
Sig strikes attempted
44
62
Total strikes landed
66
0.8
Takedowns landed
2.2
0.8
Takedowns attempted
4.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
167s
Control time
186s
Method
Decision
69%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Randy Brown
"Rudeboy"
21-8
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—
Blue corner
W1
Michael Graves
7-0-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
The Ultimate Fighter: American …
—