Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
John Dodson
Manvel Gamburyan
70%
30%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 1"
67"
32
Age
Δ 3y
35
22-13
Career record
Δ 1 pp
16-10
L1
Current streak
W2
8
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Dodson: 16 sig / 0 TD ·
Gamburyan: 2 sig / 0 TD
John Dodson
Manvel Gamburyan
44
Sig strikes landed
33
96
Sig strikes attempted
91
53
Total strikes landed
46
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.3
Takedowns attempted
4.3
0.60
Knockdowns
0.10
67s
Control time
131s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
John Dodson
"The Magician"
22-13
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
L
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2
—
W
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs K…
—
W
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
—
Blue corner
W2
Manvel Gamburyan
"The Anvil"
16-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
8 fights · 4-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee
—
W
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera
—