Prelims1
Welterweight
Court McGee vs Santiago Ponzinibbio
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans
·Amalie Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Court McGee
Santiago Ponzinibbio
28%
72%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
31
Age
Δ 2y
30
24-14
Career record
Δ 15 pp
32-9
W1
Current streak
W1
9
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
McGee: 35 sig / 0 TD ·
Ponzinibbio: 38 sig / 0 TD
Court McGee
Santiago Ponzinibbio
55
Sig strikes landed
53
141
Sig strikes attempted
135
69
Total strikes landed
54
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.5
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
96s
Control time
40s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Court McGee
"The Crusher"
24-14
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
W
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kamp…
—
W
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche
—
L
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao
—
Blue corner
W1
Santiago Ponzinibbio
"Argentine Dagger"
32-9
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Rom…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arl…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—