Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Beneil Dariush
Michael Chiesa
67%
33%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
27
Age
Δ 2y
28
24-8-1
Career record
Δ 2 pp
21-7
W5
Current streak
W2
7
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Dariush: 27 sig / 1 TD ·
Chiesa: 11 sig / 1 TD
Beneil Dariush
Michael Chiesa
23
Sig strikes landed
21
57
Sig strikes attempted
62
39
Total strikes landed
34
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.9
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
122s
Control time
137s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
35%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Beneil Dariush
24-8-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
7 fights · 6-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Sa…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
W
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
W
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs D…
—
Blue corner
W2
Michael Chiesa
"Maverick"
21-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
—
W
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—