Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Cristiane Justino
Leslie Smith
89%
11%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
66"
31
Age
Δ 3y
34
—
Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Justino: 26 sig / 0 TD ·
Smith: 2 sig / 0 TD
Cristiane Justino
Leslie Smith
50
Sig strikes landed
44
135
Sig strikes attempted
136
84
Total strikes landed
59
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.2
2.8
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
175s
Control time
40s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Cristiane Justino
"Cyborg"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner
W1
Leslie Smith
"The Peacemaker"
11-7-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
—
L
UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Mill…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Ken…
—