Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Mauricio Rua
Corey Anderson
52%
48%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 3"
79"
34
Age
Δ 8y
27
28-14-1
Career record
Δ 10 pp
15-5
W1
Current streak
W3
11
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Rua: 48 sig / 0 TD ·
Anderson: 55 sig / 4 TD
Mauricio Rua
Corey Anderson
39
Sig strikes landed
50
86
Sig strikes attempted
103
55
Total strikes landed
81
0.8
Takedowns landed
2.1
3.4
Takedowns attempted
5.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
101s
Control time
185s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Mauricio Rua
"Shogun"
28-14-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
11 fights · 5-6
Last 5
W
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
—
L
UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs S…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Hend…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
Blue corner
W3
Corey Anderson
"Overtime"
15-5
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
W
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2
—
L
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
W
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
—