Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jacare Souza
Vitor Belfort
72%
28%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
36
Age
Δ 3y
39
26-11
Career record
Δ 4 pp
27-14
L1
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Souza: 39 sig / 1 TD ·
Belfort: 4 sig / 0 TD
Jacare Souza
Vitor Belfort
21
Sig strikes landed
16
41
Sig strikes attempted
36
37
Total strikes landed
27
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.3
3.9
Takedowns attempted
0.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
168s
Control time
38s
Method
Decision
18%
KO/TKO
63%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jacare Souza
26-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
L
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
W
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mou…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Ba…
—
Blue corner
W1
Vitor Belfort
"The Phenom"
27-14
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
39
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
L
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
—