Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Warlley Alves
Bryan Barberena
62%
38%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
25
Age
Δ 2y
27
16-8
Career record
Δ 5 pp
19-12
W4
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Alves: 79 sig / 0 TD ·
Barberena: 120 sig / 0 TD
Warlley Alves
Bryan Barberena
37
Sig strikes landed
35
83
Sig strikes attempted
77
50
Total strikes landed
56
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.5
4.6
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
209s
Control time
74s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Warlley Alves
16-8
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
W
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
—
W
UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs S…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Mald…
—
Blue corner
W1
Bryan Barberena
"Bam Bam"
19-12
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—
L
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
—